Last year witnessed an increase in the trailer market by as much as 10%, and in 2021, there was another increase by 11%, according to a report by Rico Luman from ING Research. The figures pertain to the situation in the Netherlands, Belgium, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Forecasts for the future are not encouraging—the market should expect cooling both this year and next.
“We still expect to see a contraction in 2024, albeit smaller, as the economy is expected to remain sluggish and road transport only mildly recovers. With economic growth catching up, expansion could happen in 2025,” reads ING’s report.
It is forecast that expansion, as well as significant economic growth, will not occur until 2025.
Post-pandemic Rebound
Analyzing data from European markets, ING notes that after the sudden market collapse in 2020 (when the number of trailer registrations dropped by 20% y/y), there was an optimistic recovery in the following years.
Producers of this type of vehicles faced a certain shortage of components used for production, but it was not as severe as the shortage of, for example, semiconductors in the production of trucks. As a result, there has been “greater success in keeping production lines up and running.”
The trailer fleet in Europe was growing. In 2022, in European Union countries, European Free Trade Association, and Great Britain, it covered a total of 3 million vehicles.
Particularly noticeable increases were recorded in the case of trailers in the Netherlands, where the fleet has increased by a significant 30% since 2015. ING also emphasizes the rapid development in the Romanian, Lithuanian, and Polish markets.
We will wait for improvement
However, the boom is over. The ING expert notes that “after some strong years, faltering transport demand sparked a downturn in the European trailer market in 2023.”
Consumer demand, which increased immediately after the pandemic, has fallen; the economy continues to experience difficulties, and the investment climate also leaves much to be desired. At the same time, solutions have gained popularity, e.g., “trailer as a service,” i.e., related to the rental of trailers.
All this means that experts do not expect a significant market recovery in the near future.